Within the next 100 years, Earth as we know it could be transformed into an unrecognizable, alien world, with ecosystems around the globe falling apart. After looking at over 500 ancient climate records, scientists have said current climate change is comparable to what the planet went through when it came out of the last ice age—and the seismic shift in biodiversity that took place then will likely happen again.
At the end of the Last Glacial Maximum—when ice sheets covered most of North America, Asia and northern Europe—the planet warmed up by between four and seven degrees Celsius. Over the course of 10,000 years, the ice melted and entirely new ecosystems emerged, eventually developing into what we see today.
Climate scientists are currently predicting that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current rate (the so-called “business as usual” scenario) then the planet will have warmed around four degrees Celsius by 2100.
Scientists Newest Prediction: Global Temperatures Will Be Unusually Warmer Than Previously Predicted
SOURCE: The Washington Post
The past four years have been the four warmest ever recorded — and now, according to a new scientific forecast, the next five will also probably be “anomalously warm,” even beyond what the steady increase in global warming would produce on its own.
That could include another record warmest year, even warmer than the current record year of 2016. It could also include an increased risk of heat extremes and a major heat event somewhere in the Earth’s oceans, of the sort that has triggered recent die-offs of coral reefs across the tropics.
“What we found is that for the next five years or so, there is a high likelihood of an anomalously warm climate compared to anomalously cold,” said Florian Sevellec, a scientist at France’s National Center for Scientific Research, who co-authored the study published in Nature Communications with Sybren Drijfhout of the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom.
Earth is warming, but this does not mean that every year is warmer than the previous one. Rather, there is an overall warming trend — meaning that each successive decade tends to be warmer than the last — but also plenty of bouncing around among individual years in how hot they get.
One key determinant of a year’s temperature is what scientists sometimes call the climate’s “internal variability,” as opposed to the contribution of human-released greenhouse gases. The new forecast for 2018 through 2022 arises from projecting how this internal or natural variability will play out.
During the global warming “hiatus” during the 2000s, for instance, these internal factors, such as oscillations in Earth’s oceans, helped keep the planet somewhat cooler than it might otherwise have been and blunted the pace of warming — launching a long-running scientific debate and 1,000 political talking points.
Now, though, these same internal factors are poised to do the opposite, says the new research (whose authors also note that their technique can successfully capture the earlier “hiatus”). And assuming that the steady rate of global warming continues, that means already rising temperatures will get an added boost.
The study mines data from 10 existing climate change models, or simulations, to determine which do the best job of capturing how natural factors are contributing to the planet’s temperature. Then it projects forward using the same simulations to see how these factors will play out over the next five years.
It’s important to underscore that the result is a forecast based on probability — not a certain outcome. The study finds a 58 percent chance that Earth’s overall temperature from 2018 through 2022 will be anomalously warm based on these factors, and a 69 percent chance that Earth’s oceans will be.
This includes, for Earth’s oceans, “a dramatic increase of up to 400% for an extreme warm event likelihood” during 2018 to 2022, the study reports.
Already, 2018 is shaping up to be a pretty warm year — although not record-breaking. For instance, the period from March through May of this year was .87 degrees Celsius (1.57 degrees Fahrenheit) above the planet’s average from 1951 to 1980, making that the third-warmest such stretch in the temperature record, according to NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
It’s too early to determine where the year as a whole will rank. According to NASA, 2016 was the warmest year on record, followed by 2017, 2015 and 2014.
Two scientists that The Post asked about the new research had different views.
The study “offers a new and promising low-cost approach to forecasting near-term variations in global average surface temperature,” said John Fyfe, a climate scientist at the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis. “Results indicate that internal variations in the climate system will likely cause the surface to warm substantially above that expected from increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — at least for the next five years. This is important information for scientists, policymakers and society writ-large.”
But Gavin Schmidt, who directs the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said that the size of the effect isn’t very large, noting that for 2018, the technique predicts just two hundredths of a degree Celsius of added warming for the planet as a whole.
“Let’s be clear, being 58% confident that 2018 will be 0.02ºC above the forced trend . . . is not practically significant (even if it might be skillful),” Schmidt wrote in an email.
He also noted that the central factor in determining unusual warmth in any given year is whether it is an El Niño year — as 2016 was. But while scientists are monitoring whether Earth is or isn’t trending toward El Niño, the study does not attempt to predict that.
Schmidt also questioned whether the warm incursion implied by the new study would be as significant an event as the global warming “pause” or “hiatus” of the 2000s.
“Note that the ‘hiatus’ was an issue because it went against the mainstream narrative, a slightly higher couple of years won’t. And as we have stressed for decades, it’s the long-term trends that matter,” he wrote.
There’s one thing nobody can deny — the next 54 months (including this July, for which the temperature has not yet been reported by NASA) will definitively test the new forecast.
“It is one study, and what will be interesting is that now there will be a lot more that we’ll also test and try to see if our prediction is right or not,” Sevellec said.
The first Earth Day, April 22 1970, instigated an environmental movement that numbered over 20 million people, all ages, socioeconomic status and 193 countries and lead to the adoption of numerous federal and states laws and funding programs, man y to help fund local municipal to makes cities healthier. Watch it! CBS and Walter Cronkite tell it like it is.
Our planet is deeply in peril. Despite warnings from the scientists as far back as that humans continuing to conduct The extreme weather this year around the world, including the U.S., and the continuing smashing of longtime weather and climate records over the bast two decades, such as record ice melting at the poles and Earth’s many mountainous glaciers, have demonstrated the direction our planet is heading. It’s no longer in doubt we humans are the cause. But our federal and many state governments (Wisconsin being one of them.) have continued refuse to acknowledge
But only a few scientists will publicly say it since that would make them “doomsday scientists” who are considered not credible. Or they would be silenced and prevented from speaking freely about the subject of Earth’s atmosphere exceeding its limit of greenhouse gases before the cascades in nature cause worldwide calamities and destruction.
EPA Climate Scientists prohibited to speak at this week’s National Estuary Program in Rhode Island. This silencing of federal scientists on the subject of global warming and its consequences has been going on upwards of 17 years, when my brother, Patrick J. Neuman – a long time and respected National Weather Service (NWS) flood forecasting employee of the federal government, responsible for forecasting flooding in the Midwest states, including Wisconsin and Minnesota where he and his family lived.
Pat spoke out often about his growing concerns regarding the consequences of human caused global warning in his conversations with other coworkers and his supervisors in 2000. But when it came to presenting his information to the public at the NWS’s presentations at the Mall of America in early 2000, “higher ups” at the NWS prohibited from going and participating in the program.
He was subsequently told to pack up his things and vacate his office in Channhassen. Minnesota, where the National Weather Service Midwest Regional office is located, 6 months before he was eligible for his pension. However, the next day, NWS officials realized Pat had filed a notice of discrimination action (based on religion) which the NWS had failed to act on. They subsequently allowed Pat to work at home for the remaining 6 week period so he would not lose his pension, provided he sign a nondisclosure contract that kept the NWS blunder secret.
My twin brother, Pat, committed suicide on June 29, 2009.
Just As Americans Ignored Death of Millions of People at Auschwitz; So Too Have Americans Ignored the Realities of Humans Causing Global Warming
A new study in the journal Nature Geoscience found that warm ocean water is melting Antarctica’s ice sheets from below, contributing to sea level rise. Most of the observed melting is in West Antarctica, where more than 20 percent of the ice sheet has retreated across the sea floor. The study cited satellite data that show more than 10 percent of the continent’s glaciers are in retreat—as opposed to less than 2 percent of glaciers that are growing. If all of Antarctica’s ice melted, worldwide sea levels would rise by about 200 feet.